EUR Swaps: Latest supply round eyed

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EGBs are drifting lower amid the US holiday. Euro traders eye how the next round of supply will be taken down.

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  • Latest supply round eyed
  • 10s/30s steepeners attractive - NatWest
  • New issues

    Latest supply round eyed
    Amid the US Martin Luther King holiday, EGBs have been drifting lower with the 10y Bund future last down by 22 ticks while the 10y yield has risen by 2bps to 2.20%. 

    Speaking earlier, one trader reckoned this week could be interesting when it comes to price action, “The first couple of weeks saw big supply that was widely anticipated and taken down pretty well by the market. Positioning now feels a lot cleaner and it will be interesting to see how the next supply round gets digested,” he felt.

    Among the the latest syndications to hit the screen, Greece announced today that it is working on a long EUR 10y issue. Elsewhere, Spain is still waiting in the wings with a possible new deal. Next week, the European Union is scheduled to arrive with a big syndication.

    Swap spreads are 0.5bp to 0.75bp tighter across the 5y to 30y sector of the curve. “There has been some profit-taking (from shorts) but overall the bias seems for more tightening,” reckoned one dealer.

    Elsewhere, the swap curve is a touch steeper across the belly with last prices 2s/5s at -40bps (+1bp), 5s/10s at -6bps (+0.75bp) and 10s/30s at -54.4bps (-0.75bp).


    Finally, falling gas prices have accompanied another sharp drop in front end euro inflation swaps, with EUR 1y down 15bps to 2.55% and 2y down 9bps to 2.35%.  


    10s/30s steepeners attractive - NatWest
    In its weekly rates research published today NatWest likes 10s/30s swap steepeners. It writes:

    • ”We think 10s/30s steepeners in swaps look attractive this week. Demand for long end swaps also seems to have slowed. We expected a slowdown from pensions after the rush at the end of last year. Some long end supply is likely to be bought now by asset swappers (banks, insurance, foreigners).

    • “Financial supply has started the year very strongly and has been helping push asset swaps tighter. Tighter asset swaps are a key theme for us this year. Bund spreads to 30-40bp seems possible with lower volatility, greater collateral availability, and lighter ALM paying in swaps.

    • “But in the near term, lower rates may reactivate some ALM paying, encourage investors to buy on asset swap, and corporates to pay swaps to lock in bond issuance later this year. For this week, we’re just monitoring asset swaps.”


    New issues

  • Greece plans EUR long 10y through Barclays, BofA, Commerzbank, GS, JPM and SocGen.

  • Quebec plans EUR 10y through CA, DB, HSBC, JPM and RBC.

  • BPCE is pricing EUR 5y around swaps +90bps and 12y NC7 Tier 2 around swaps +250bps via Natixis (B&D).

  • Bspk Schwaebisch Hall plans €500m (max) long 9y Covered through Deka, DB, DZ, Natixis and Swedbank.

  • Arkema is pricing €400m (max) 8y at swaps +100bps through CA, CIC, Citi (B&D) and SocGen.

  • NWB Bank plans EUR 7y SDG Housing bonds through BofA, CA, HSBC and TD.

  • NIBC Bank plans €500m (max) 7y Covered through Commerzbank, DZ, ING, LBBW and NatWest.

  • AIB Group is pricing EUR 6.5y NC5.5 Social around swaps +225bps through Barclays, BNPP, HSBC, JPM and UBS.

  • EDP is pricing €1bn 60.25y NC5.25 Green Hybrid at 5.95% through Barclays, HSBC (B&D), BNPP, Caixa, Citi, IMI, JPM, MUFG and Mizuho.

  • RLB Tirol plans €500m (max) 5y Covered through Commerzbank, Erste, helaba, Raiffeisen and UniCredit.

  • RLB Vorarlberg is pricing €300m 4y Covered at swaps +23bps through Commerzbank, Deka, Erste, Helaba and RBI (B&D).

  • LBBW is pricing €1bn 3y Covered at swaps -5bps through DB, ING, LBBW (B&D), Lloyds, SocGen and TD.

  • DekaBank plans €250m (max) 2y Covered through Commerzbank, Deka and Natixis.