Dealer Rankings 2023: Testing Times

Workstations 26 May 2022
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Dealers coped with bank runs and the march of AI in 2023. Which team is unexpectedly fighting for the top slot and who's battling relegation?

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The results of the dealer rankings poll and the associated feature are protected under copyright laws. Reproduction of the feature and/or the poll results, for either internal or external distribution, is strictly prohibited without the prior written permission of Total Derivatives.

 

For information on reprints of the rankings, and permission to reproduce the results in any form, please contact joseph.mahoney@totalderivatives.com or call +44 (0)20 7779 8919.

 

Dealer Rankings 2023: Testing Times

Over a decade ago, in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 to 2009, the ‘flow monster’ banks with the largest balance sheets and the biggest franchises were predicted to dominate investment banking. Following the Lesser Financial Crisis of 2023 (plus the UK LDI crisis of 2022), the same process seems to have begun in US banking, with the ‘deposit monsters’ – and the money market funds – benefiting at the expense of the smaller names.

 

How this all plays out remains to be seen. If market pricing of significant Fed rate cuts later this year turns out to be correct, then perhaps that will be enough to rescue some shaky business models and restore equilibrium. But even if stubbornly high inflation means that the Fed - and the other central banks - find their hands tied in the face of financial instability, one message from the latest Total Derivatives Dealer Rankings is that even the biggest banks can rise and fall, while smaller names can retain the lead in certain products and/or currencies, such as GBP and JPY.    

 

While the volatility sparked by central bank rate hikes and the Lesser Financial Crisis may have arrived at a bad time for the banks as they prepare finally to bury USD LIBOR and transition to SOFR, it has also thrown up the usual mix of threats and opportunities that accompany periods of significant market turmoil. The last few months have underscored the importance of hedging duration risk with a swap dealer, and not just for the smaller US banks. Nearly everyone outside the energy sector is struggling with high inflation – maybe more of that risk will be hedged in future? And while US/global banking and leveraged fund regulation is more likely to be tightened than relaxed over the next couple of years, at least swap dealers, with the assistance of regulators and central banks, seem to have passed the latest market stress tests without crashing the world economy this time. Let's hope that increasingly artificial, generally intelligent swap dealers can weather future storms as successfully as their forebears. 

 

The results of the Dealer Rankings

The 2023 Total Derivatives Dealer Rankings saw JP Morgan retain the top slot across global rates products and currencies  but Citigroup rose to second from third in 2022, and Goldman Sachs ascended to third from fourth. Barclays slipped to global fourth and Deutsche Bank remained in fifth.

 

By currency, JP Morgan also stayed first for USD derivatives. Citigroup maintained second place and Goldman Sachs rose to third, pushing BofA into fourth. JP Morgan also kept first place for EUR rates derivatives,  Deutsche Bank rose to second and BNP Paribas slipped a place to third. Barclays sustained its lead in GBP derivatives, ahead of NatWest Markets in second. Goldman Sachs rose a place to third. Mizuho ranked first in JPY derivatives, ahead of Mitsubishi UFJ. 

 

Across products, Citigroup rose to first place in global inflation, JP Morgan improved to second from fourth and Barclays fell back to third. JP Morgan retained top in global options while Goldman Sachs rose to again to second and Citigroup improved to rank third. JP Morgan climbed to take first place for interest rate structured MTNs, with Goldman Sachs second and Citigroup joint third in MTNs with Morgan Stanley.

 

JP Morgan kept its grip firmly on first place for USD IRS trading for both the 2-10y and 10-50y buckets. BofA remained second in 2-10y but Goldman Sachs rose to second for 10-50y IRS. Citigroup was third in both categories. Citadel Securities stayed in the rankings for a third year with a fifth place for USD 2-10y and 10-50y, behind Goldman Sachs and BofA in fourth, respectively.

 

JP Morgan bounced back to take first place in USD options as Morgan Stanley fell to fourth behind Citigroup in second and Goldman Sachs in third. JP Morgan kept the top slot for USD inflation products ahead of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs in third. JP Morgan also rose to lead for USD structured MTNs, with Goldman Sachs up to second and Citigroup in third, just ahead of Morgan Stanley in fourth.

 

In EUR IRS, JP Morgan rose to first place for 2-10y and 10-50y swaps for the first time in a couple of years, with Deutsche Bank in second place for 2-10y and BNP Paribas second for 10-50y IRS. BNP Paribas was also third for EUR 2-10y swaps and Deutsche Bank third for 10-50y.

 

In EUR options trading, JP Morgan held on the first place for another year while Deutsche Bank moved up to second place from Goldman Sachs in third. BNP Paribas was fourth and Barclays fifth.

 

Barclays kept the top slot for EUR inflation, but Citigroup rose to second and Deutsche Bank slipped to third, ahead of BNP Paribas and JP Morgan. JP Morgan retained first place for EUR structured MTNs while Goldman Sachs rose to second, Deutsche Bank came in third and BNP Paribas fourth.

 

JP Morgan stayed top for EUR/USD cross-currency basis for the seventh year in a row, followed by Citigroup.  Deutsche Bank rose to third with Barclays.

 

In GBP interest rate swaps, NatWest Markets was first for 10-50y swaps after a very volatile 12 months for sterling rates, while Barclays kept first place for the 2-10y bucket. Barclays also retained first place for GBP options and GBP inflation, while NatWest stayed second for options and Goldman rose to third. Citigroup climbed to third for GBP inflation and Goldman Sachs was fourth.

 

Finally, JPY swaps and options saw Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho and Nomura fight for most of the top three places, with Mitsubishi UFJ placed first in 2-10y and Nomura in 10-50y swaps.

 

 

All interest rate derivatives 1 JP Morgan 19.3%
  2 Citigroup 10.3%
  3 Goldman Sachs 8.8%
  4 Barclays 7.9%
  5 Deutsche Bank 7.5%
       
USD 2-10y IRS 1 JP Morgan 27.0%
  2 BofA 13.5%
  3 Citigroup 12.9%
  4 Goldman Sachs 8.3%
  5 Citadel Securities 8.0%
       
USD 10-50y IRS 1 JP Morgan 28.6%
  2 Goldman Sachs 12.9%
  3 Citigroup 12.6%
  4 BofA 8.2%
  5 Citadel Securities 7.1%
       
USD interest rate options 1 JP Morgan 25.9%
  2 Citigroup 13.8%
  3 Goldman Sachs 13.0%
  4 Morgan Stanley 9.7%
  5 Deutsche Bank 7.7%
       
USD inflation derivatives and cash 1 JP Morgan 24.4%
  2 Citigroup 19.5%
  3 Goldman Sachs 11.0%
  4 Morgan Stanley 9.8%
  5 BofA 9.1%
       
USD interest rate structured notes 1 JP Morgan 26.0%
  2 Goldman Sachs 17.5%
  3 Citigroup 11.0%
  4 Morgan Stanley 10.4%
  5 Credit Suisse 5.2%
       
EUR 2-10y IRS 1 JP Morgan 22.5%
  2 Deutsche Bank 15.8%
  3 BNP Paribas 12.4%
  4 Societe Generale 8.4%
  5 Barclays 7.4%
       
EUR 10-50y IRS 1 JP Morgan 25.3%
  2 BNP Paribas 15.6%
  3 Deutsche Bank 15.2%
  4 Societe Generale 8.3%
  5 Citigroup 6.9%
       
EUR interest rate options 1 JP Morgan 21.2%
  2 Deutsche Bank 10.6%
  3 Goldman Sachs 10.1%
  4 BNP Paribas 9.0%
  5 Barclays 7.4%
       
EUR/USD cross currency basis 1 JP Morgan 24.9%
  2 Citigroup 19.0%
  3 Deutsche Bank 10.6%
  3 Barclays 10.6%
  5 Morgan Stanley 6.9%
       
EUR inflation cash and derivatives 1 Barclays 15.5%
  2 Citigroup 13.5%
  3 Deutsche Bank 12.8%
  3 BNP Paribas 12.8%
  5 JP Morgan 12.2%
       
EUR interest rate structured notes 1 JP Morgan 17.4%
  2 Goldman Sachs 14.6%
  3 Deutsche Bank 13.9%
  4 BNP Paribas 13.2%
  5 Morgan Stanley 7.6%
       
JPY 2-10y IRS 1 Mitsubishi UFJ 17.5%
  2 Nomura 15.9%
  3 Mizuho 15.1%
  3 JP Morgan 15.1%
  5 SMBC 12.7%
       
JPY 10-50y IRS 1 Nomura 21.9%
  2 Mitsubishi UFJ 18.2%
  3 Mizuho 16.8%
  4 JPMorgan 13.9%
  5 SMBC 11.7%
       
JPY interest rate options 1 Mizuho 21.7%
  2 Mitsubishi UFJ 18.3%
  3 SMBC 15.0%
  3 Nomura 15.0%
  5 Goldman Sachs 9.2%
       
JPY inflation derivatives and cash 1 Mizuho 19.8%
  2 Mitsubishi UFJ 18.0%
  3 Nomura 15.3%
  4 SMBC 11.7%
  5 JP Morgan 9.0%
       
GBP 2-10y IRS 1 Barclays 22.9%
  2 NatWest Markets 17.6%
  3 HSBC 10.5%
  4 Citigroup 7.2%
  5 Lloyds 6.5%
       
GBP 10-50y IRS 1 NatWest Markets 15.6%
  2 Goldman Sachs 15.0%
  3 Deutsche Bank 13.6%
  4 Barclays 12.9%
  5 Lloyds 8.2%
       
GBP interest rate options 1 Barclays 25.9%
  2 NatWest Markets 13.7%
  3 Goldman Sachs 10.8%
  4 JP Morgan 10.1%
  5 Citigroup 9.4%
       
GBP inflation derivatives and cash 1 Barclays 22.7%
  2 NatWest Markets 13.6%
  3 Citigroup 12.9%
  4 Goldman Sachs 12.1%
  5 HSBC 5.3%
       
All USD interest rate derivatives 1 JP Morgan 26.7%
  2 Citigroup 13.7%
  3 Goldman Sachs 11.9%
  4 BofA 9.1%
  5 Morgan Stanley 7.8%
       
All EUR interest rate derivatives 1 JP Morgan 21.5%
  2 Deutsche Bank 13.5%
  3 BNP Paribas 11.3%
  4 Citigroup 9.1%
  5 Barclays 8.4%
       
All JPY interest rate derivatives 1 Mizuho 18.2%
  2 Mitsubishi UFJ 18.0%
  3 Nomura 17.2%
  4 SMBC 12.8%
  5 JPMorgan 11.7%
       
All GBP interest rate derivatives 1 Barclays 21.0%
  2 NatWest Markets 15.2%
  3 Goldman Sachs 10.9%
  4 Citigroup 8.9%
  5 Deutsche Bank 7.2%
       
All IRS 1 JP Morgan 20.5%
  2 Citigroup 8.6%
  3 Deutsche Bank 7.9%
  4 Goldman Sachs 7.2%
  5 Barclays 7.0%
       
All interest rate options 1 JP Morgan 18.4%
  2 Goldman Sachs 11.1%
  3 Citigroup 9.6%
  4 Barclays 7.6%
  5 Deutsche Bank 6.9%
       
All inflation 1 Citigroup 14.2%
  2 JP Morgan 13.2%
  3 Barclays 11.7%
  4 Goldman Sachs 8.8%
  5 Deutsche Bank 5.8%
       
All interest rate structured notes 1 JP Morgan 21.8%
  2 Goldman Sachs 16.1%
  3 Citigroup 9.1%
  3 Morgan Stanley 9.1%
  5 BNP Paribas 8.1%

 

The methodology

Total Derivatives’ rankings are the most comprehensive peer review of dealers’ performance in interest rate derivatives trading. There were around 580 individual responses to the latest rankings, registering a total of over 1,740 votes. Experienced professionals involved in trading, sales and marketing, structuring and strategy at investment banks formed the largest group of respondents, with portfolio managers at asset managers and hedge funds also taking part. Voting took place in April and May 2023.

 

To recap, respondents were asked to rank the top three dealers (other than their own institution) based on reliability of market-making, keenness of pricing, depth of liquidity provision, speed of execution, access to e-trading platforms, efficiency of post-trade processing and product innovation.

 

Market-makers were ranked in dollars, euro, yen and sterling. Product categories include two year to 10-year interest rate swaps, 10-year to 50-year interest rate swaps, inflation (cash and derivatives), interest rate options, EUR/USD cross-currency basis swaps and interest rate structured MTNs in USD and EUR.

 

For information on reprints of the rankings, and permission to reproduce the results in any form, please contact joseph.mahoney@totalderivatives.com or call +44 (0)20 7779 8919.